I was joking when I made that banner late 2016 after the Trump Election victory, but that’s exactly what we’ve gone and done: go to Infinity & Beyond.
With how SPX came within 10 points of the JAN 26 ATH and we’ve been witness of the multiple new ATHS the NDX has placed throughout the year (RUT too, but not the DJAI), it offers a chance to give a view of how we had such a similar “to Infinity & Beyond” once before and how the dates and pattern all seem to be eerily similar.
I’ll try to point out the similarities between the MAR 24 dotCOM peak and the JAN 26Trump peak and how this similar move into where we are now as of AUG 8 are more similar than you may think.
First the main dotCOM move into #NeverForget:
the dotCOM boom and fade
The main difference between now and the dotCOM peak reattempt is that 2000 was an Election year (W.) whereas this is a mid-election year with the House – Senate & Congress up for grabs in November.
PEAK and DROP:
dotCOM: from MAR 24 peak, 15 sessions later, SPX bottomed -12.64%
Trump: from the JAN 26 peak, 10 sessions later, SPX bottomed -11.84%
dotCOM: from the APR 14 bottom, SPX supported:
– past -10% 4 times
– near it 4 times with the final one MAY 26
Trump: from the FEB 9 bottom, SPX supported:
– past -10% 4 times
– near it 4 times with the final one coming MAY 3
Taking Down The ATH:
dotCOM: SEP 1, SPX came the closest to the ATH by 22.78 points (2.07% from it)
Trump: AUG 7 (yesterday) SPX missed it by 9.44 (0.50% from it)
After Getting Rejected:
On OCTOBER 10 (remember that’s the 2002 BEAR MARKET LOW date), SPX had dropped > -10% from the MAR 24 ATH. Two sessions later on OCT 12, the LOD reached -14.37% – taking out APR 14 CORRECTION LOW.
OCT 17 & 18 it formed a dead cat bottom for a bounce into NOV 6 that would fall just-7.77% from the MAR 24 Highs before the next move.
NOV slowly faded off that NOV 6 High and started breaking that -10% base formed back up there in APR – MAY to decline to the end the month with the lowest tick of the year: -15.32% from the MAR 24 ATH.
Here comes the Santa Claus Rally
Santa didn’t bring sh!t as the highest point SPX reached in DEC was +50 points above the APR 14 CORRECTION BOTTOM making the highest close in December -11.12%from the MAR 24 ATH.
As Christmas neared, SPXX bottomed for the year on DEC 21 @ -18.55% from theMAR 24 ATH…
AND THIS IS JUST ENDING 2000
When SPX finally bottomed on OCT 10, 2002, it had lost -50.5% from that MAR 24, 2000 ATH and #NeverForget had little to do with it as we were already in the process of taking out the MAR 21, 2001 LOWS (-30.37% from dotCOM ATH) just days before the tragic event too place.
When we peaked into the Financial Crisis top in 2007, you wouldn’t believe it unless you saw it with you’re own two eyes:
SPX 2007 Top (before banks collapsed)
If that doesn’t align you yet, how about the financial crisis BOTTOM Mar 9, 2009
Right to the dotCOM fade/OCT 2002 BEAR MARKET LOWS +, but wait:
14 trading sessions below that OCT 2002 LOW which just happened to be the 61.8 retrace from the OCT 10 1990 LOW (there’s that date again) to the dotCOM ATH and the 61.8 retrace from the LOW which came from the OCT 19, 1987 “Black Monday” market crash which began in Hong Kong overnight.
So, it’s a good story and one you’ll want to keep and teach your children as they grow up and eventually have robots programmed to trade on their behalf.
I know (or atleast assume) few of you were trading when the dotCOM boom took place which was when I started as a broker in 1997 under the wing of Dougie Kass
This OCT is the 16yr anniversary of the 2002 BEAR MARKET LOW and the 10YR anniversary of the financial crisis LOW is the week of Thanksgiving.
Does it mean anything at all? We’ll have to wait and see, but it darn sure looks similar
SPX 10Yr Weekly