Services PMI data sealed the -136.59p / 2 session drop which began off the ISM data and took that SPX Daily RSI(5) down to 12.37 for the due technical bounce and what we won’t know until we know is d/iv of this wave-c 1st leg down, with a e/v final leg or if it was all of a or c and the bounce b wave is in progress.
VIX, TLT, RUT, Banks & the Trannies suggest d/iv and that’s mainly because in all my hours of viewing the background indicators, never have I seen a +55p bounce on SPX keep the VIX so BEARISH as it never left the 19s.
With the 1hr, 4hr improvements and not yet up to overbought levels, the preferred view is still for that gap to be filled with pivots of interest at:
Leaving the gap unfilled is not a major concern for now as the Daily posted that sub 15 reading on the RSI(5), but what is a pretty standard programming is for that LOW placement (technically) to be followed up with a lower price posting a higher techncial to display the BUY DIVERGENCE and support the view that the wave has completed.
SPX slammed right to the edge of the moisture releasing what was deemed to be a safe fart in that its LOD there @ 2855.94 missed the entry into that still unfilled AUG gap @ 2853 – 2847 which has only 2835 to protect it from the TRIPLE BOTTOM 2822 – 2825 – 2826 to avoid breaking into the 2700s and produce the ES/SPY overnight low from AUG 5 which never printed in the cash session:
2775.75 / 277.37
As for the JOBS Report: It doesn’t really mean much anymore.
As I’m writing, the ES Futures just popped during the Asian Lunch Session and prior to the EU open for the reclaiming of the FEB 2016 – Election LOWS Line @ 2912.50 and that 2914.75 which will be SPX 2913.
With the JOBS Report: 140,000 is the forecast and we already saw the ADP Non-Farm miss by 5,000 on Tuesday. I can take you back as far as AUG 1987 and give you a running total of the 3 & 6 month average, the beats and misses and the result the day of the report and being the NOW matters more than the PAST… it doesn’t matter what’s reported.
The 9 reports this year and the SPX results of them on the JOBS Friday are:
SEP -30,000 (MISS) +2.71 SPX Closed
AUG MATCH -21.51 SPX Closed
JUL +64,000 (BEAT) -5.41 SPX Closed
JUN -110,000 (MISS) +29.85 SPX Closed
MAY +82,000 (BEAT) +28.12 SPX Closed
APR +21,000 (BEAT) +13.35 SPX Closed
MAR -161,000 (MISS) -5.86 SPX Closed
FEB +139,000 (BEAT) +2.43 SPX Closed
JAN +134,000 (BEAT) +84.05 SPX Closed
Charts matter; Indicators matter; JAN & JUN we were coming off XTREME oversold conditions on the Daily (MAR JOBS was when we bottomed @ 2722). Thus what the scene calls for now is BAD JOBS means a SURE RATE CUT in NOV which doesn’t help the RUT/BANKS, but they or more easily followed via the YEN/TLT/GOLD so…
SPX dropped outside the Daily Bolinger Band on yesterday’s dip to the top of that unfilled gap and surpassed the 161.8 extension @ 2868.82 which satisfies the wavec/iii and wave d/iv should target that unfilled gap zone 2925 – 2940 with the pivots above the main characters in that area.
From it, if this does play to be 5 waves for the ideal drop, then the ending should be filling the unfilled gap @ 2853 – 2847 and threatening that AUG TRIPLE BOTTOM by way of revisiting the AUG 23 LOW @ 2835.
This is ASSUMING THE SCRIPT IS FOLLOWED
Today is OCT 4 and the 2 BEARISH CELSTIAL Dates upon us are:
October 5 (44/100 Middle Terms Power)
October 9 (38/100 Long Terms Power)
For those unfamiliar with Financial Astrology, I’d advise having in your back pocket kinda like a nail file for Joe Niekro: The larger of the 2 is the OCT 9 one being its involving the alignments of Jupiter & Saturn as opposed to Mars, Venus and Mercury (see here).
Being its OCT 4… today is FOUR MONTHS to the day since SPX last broke below 2800 and we oddly broke below 2900 Tuesday for the 1st time in almost exactly ONE MONTH from the SEP 3 dip underneath. While I wouldn’t “gut feel” about the settings that we’re flushing 2800s today on a JOBS beat/miss, the rumbling down there wants to tell me the non-ideal wave c/iii dip yesterday past 2868.82 and the “death crossing” RUT/IWM/RTY (with less than 10,000 Trannies)… wave d/iv might not happen at all since we had a clean 5 waves up off yesterday’s bottom.
I’ll get into that “LET’S BREAK 2800” Dream Scenario on the weekend after this BIG FOMO WARNING OF A 3rd 🔻 RED WEEKLY CANDLE places in after the closing bell today.
EXPIRATION DAY TODAY:
Thus, under the ASSUMPTION of wave d/iv if we’re due 5 waves or if this is the start of the big bounce wave for the gap filling and we only got 3 waves down from 3022 – 2856, the TODAY’s HIGH RISK Upside focus points will be:
SPY 291.74 – 292.35
QQQ 186.54 – 187.77
IWM 147.90 – 148.64
All those TECH NAMES that popped to their expected pop zones (AAPL, NVDA, ROKU, NFLX, BABA, FB, AMD, BA, SHOP, MSFT) will have to be on resistance rejection watch
Anything you see or want to see, just tag me in the main chat room cause I have SHORT inventory coming out of my ears already and dont need to make trades if I can be guiding and charting instead.