TraderTim

Nice FAKE CRUDE CRISIS...  Nice REPO FUBAR...  Is the OPEX Pattern Alive? Its Wednesday, the 3rd day of the week - OPEX WEEK at that, and we've already had the BIGGEST 1-day jump in Crude prices since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, the BIGGEST overnight REPO spike IN HISTORY with the FED needing to step in and fund it with 53B, and we're going into Jerome Powell's decision/press conference having moved inside of a 16p range on SPX which.... SPIKED the RSI(5) [...]

The algos had every "keyword" thrown at it during the trading session Monday from China's never to happen trade deal, to Iran, to a Japan deal, to Powell bashing to Happy 13yr anniversary since Lehman closed its doors.   Nothing could spark a lick of energy in either direction:  leaving both the unfulfilled standard 4th wave retracement to SPX 2975 or the, now unfilled gap from Friday which the ES closed shortly after the closing bell. We're stuck on the indices until [...]

It's OPEX Week which means we're 75% likely to get the High of the Month placed during this week after we DOUBLE FAILED in AUG by 1) not posting a High of the Month during OPEX Week and 2) not posting a lower low after the pre-OPEX Week low after failing 1):  the first time (other than FEB 2018's Too Fast Of A Drop) in 32 months of recording the prior low wasn't taken out: 100% odds.   With how AUG [...]

As many know and as many have stated:  NO ONE DOES FED DAYS BETTER THAN 32Trades With this week's FOMC meeting, the continuation of what has been preached for years when this day nears remains the same which is "save your powder for Wednesday afternoon and be ready to see a 5-10 bagger on Wednesday SPX/SPY expires."   Being as how few were around, let alone experienced or exposed to the stock market the last time interest rate cuts were taking [...]

That absurd unfilled gap down from JUL 29 got its filling yesterday and the Knights Templar Treasure unveiled what most 1min chart watchers can not see:    Powell still decides and then gets chastised for his decision on Wednesday; SPX filled every gap made in AUG:  the recently made ones unfilled: 2960-2939,  2922-2914, 2853-2847; No 5th wave confirmed yet since we're only on the 3 top; VIX not falling away for a BULLISH profile; OPEX High of the Month placement still [...]

In a day of remembrance, it was a given there was due to be a positive session, but the cheezy SPY 300 / SPX 3000 was a bit - lets say flamboyant - considering the day began with the ,🤡 tweeting out Powell is a BONEHEAD and rates should be 0% or less:  a pre-Volfefe Index message that would drop yields like the oxygen level in a room when a fart gets released.   The only tweet that mattered was the [...]

With the weirdest "fake selloff" yesterday proving our ES 2961-58 and that topside of the lower gap touched @ SPX 2960, the strong shift into the RUT/IWM, XLF & Trannies has the table set for BULLS to Prevail with an alt- B for that stupid unfilled gap up @ 3010 - 3020 ahead of OPEX/Powell or Fail using Thursday - Monday's 2985 - 2989 as resistance and be pushed under 2960 for the gap fill to 2938. Charts are mixed when [...]

Not much to add really other than speculation of a "B" formation and "throw over" look without any form of confirmation with those 2 unfilled gaps that end just below the SEP 2018 High of SPX 2941.   Three days of stagnation and ES refusing to prove/disprove itself on that 2961.25 - 2958.50 space leaves little to be confident about still and leaves the window open for a brief move to SPY 300/SPX 3006 before we start seeing red screens which, [...]

With two unfilled gaps that end just below the SEP 2018 High of 2941, "YES there is a HIGH LIKELYHOOD that SPX can delay the inevitable for a week and even break above that 50d SMA for the throw-over and BEAR STOPPAGE for that 2975 we never got in the early part of AUG, but the chances of it are both dwindling and low odds if you plan to play that maybe +30p for a short with time or just [...]

August ended the final two sessions of the month with 2 flat closes in the 2900s after a GAP UP from the 2888 close Wednesday, AUG 28 which was that dip we had to 2853 with a morning that was starting with OVERSOLD Hourlies.   Since it (or the last 5 trading sessions) we've had gap opens of +22.43, +12.51, -17.45 (which in my view closed the +22.43 & +12.51 gaps), +18.40 and +22.82 which, from that "hourlies oversold" start of [...]