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- TERMINOLOGY: ES = S&P Futures; YM = DOW Futures; NQ = Nasdaq Futures

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What You Need To Know
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CRUDE -100 (-25.90%) and USO has hit all 3 primary drop targets: 71.46 – 70.37 – 69.60
66.98 is still the focus for the full ride
the +100% Gainz on the APR 14 USO 70 PUTS can be booked / scaled out of today
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NASDAQ 23.6 retraces to the 2002 & 2008 BOTTOMS has made contact this morning
all of which fits for the final wave 5 target of the correction diagonal
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RUSSIA & UKRAINE are still engaged
headlines all morning Friday & yesterday (and every dip this month) have come from comments
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INFLATION
France reported higher for FEB, U.S. reports the PPI @ 8:30 today
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S&P is not yet on the FEB LOW (4114.65), but is definitely hunting that 4065 – 4050 – 4045
FOMC meeting 2PM and the Powell presser @ 2:30PM tomorrow
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U.S. 10yr (TLT, TNX) posted a new 52wk high overnight (chart on right here)
Only a few unfilled gaps since DEC
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CHINA / HANG SENG continued their massive sell offs Tuesday
The Hang Seng is now > -40% from the ATH (FEB 18 2021)
-27.2% from the FEB 10 2022 High
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We said this would happen at the end of JAN 2022 when the wave-a bottom hit and we’re due to get the final piece of the puzzle tomorrow come 2PM; only change is we’ve formed a more encouraging BULLISH WEDGE with lower lows
So…
Powell speaks tomorrow afternoon and my “opinion” is NO HIKE although the gun to my head says we hike 0.25bps as expected
The COMMENTARY is what will be reacted upon and the expectation from some of us that have been around the block a few times the last 30yrs in this market is they won’t hike again this year simply because they can’t
Liquidity clearly remains very low which allows for sell algos to move price lower much quicker than most have ever been used to since we haven’t had a grinding CORRECTION since OCT – DEC 2018 which was 57 trading sessions in length for SPX -20.21% total decline
We’re onto session #50 of this CORRECTION and whether this is wave A/1 of the start of the end of the world or its what 9/10 EW’ers have as wave-4 of the Cycle, a large bounce if approaching and we got all the easy meat off the downside back in JAN & FEB
Thus I’d still suspect SPX 4065 – 4050 – 4045 this week and will remind all:
This is the 3rd consecutive MONTHLY Candle we’re working
This will be the 3rd consecutive OPEX FAIL as well
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SPX Daily
NDX
VIX: In 30s since FEB 22
ANY tickers you want looked at, PM me in chat
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10yr @ 2.089 (5:00 AM EST)
VIX @ 33.59 (5:00 AM EST)
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+30 Print points AGAIN to BTFD on SPY etc.
SPX Monday MAR 14 Data:
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Overnight Gap: -1.56
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Range: 85.85
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Open -Close: -29.64
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Close -Close: -31.20
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LOD > Previous Close: -42.59
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Previous Close > High: +43.26
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ATH > Close: –-13.40%
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ATH > LOD: -13.63%
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2022 Open: 4778.14 (-12.66%)
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HOD Off MAR 2020 LOW: +93.79%
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YoY: +5.14%
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Month of March (4,363.14): -4.36%