🔻🔺 FED DAY MAR 16 WATCH | MASSIVE GAP UPS #China 🚨

Message me in CHAT any individual stocks you have or are watching for

• TERMINOLOGY:  ES = S&P Futures; YM = DOW Futures; NQ = Nasdaq Futures

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What You Need To Know

• CHINA  promsied to not let the stock market become volatile;  the BTFD we saw yesterday when it had its collapse lower with HSTech > -40% from ATH results are in above 

  All CHINA TECH NAMES provided MASSIVE moves up last night

• NASDAQ 23.6 retraces to the 2002 & 2008 BOTTOMS has made contact yesterday morning

  /NQ (QQQ) saw a +5.5% move   (+3.91% bounce on /ES so far) and it semi-fits a dirty pattern we’ve formed:

  Wednesday MAR 2 & Wednesday MAR 9 we had MASSIVE CLOSES HIGHER on SPX like yesterday’s +89.34;

  Every other session of the month has been a SELL DOWN 

• RUSSIA & UKRAINE are still engaged and POSITIVE COMMENTS of a way to talk PEACE is why we’re adding to the CHINA BTFD momentum ahead of Zelenskyy’s address to Congress prior to today’s open

  headlines all month have been dip/rally reactions

• VIX

  VIX is on that critical 28.84 pivot AGAIN here this morning

• S&P Nasdaq & Russell scraped their bottoms prior to the open yesterday

  SPX wiggled for that +4256 while QQQ & IWM closed right on their ULTIMATE SUPPORTS after their bounces from Tuesday night lows

• FOMC meeting 2PM and the Powell presser @ 2:30PM tomorrow

  We get retails sales, import/export prices this monring and the ASSUMPTION is a 0.25bps hike with HAWKISH COMMENTS – both of which I doubt occur (no hike and no end to QE)

• U.S. 10yr (TLT, TNX) posted another new 52wk high overnight (2.201)

  TLT CALLS or TNX PUTS are the play for the retracement back to reality 1.75 – 1.80

• CRUDE -37p DROP cfits for a WAVE-4 with WAVE-5 pending to confirm which would target +130 for 142-147

• We said this would happen at the end of JAN 2022 when the wave-a bottom hit and we’re due to get the final piece of the puzzle tomorrow come 2PM; only change is we’ve formed a more encouraging BULLISH WEDGE with lower lows 

See CONTACT MADE here on SPY a/o 4:45AM on that resistance line …

Before the repeat of yesterday’s comments which still apply until we see a break above 4350…

We have had ONE GREAT SESSION dump into 3+ SELL DOWN SESSIONS

Here’s from FEB OPEX:

Powell speaks today afternoon and my “opinion” is NO HIKE although the gun to my head says we hike 0.25bps as expected

The COMMENTARY is what will be reacted upon and the expectation from some of us that have been around the block a few times the last 30yrs in this market is they won’t hike again this year simply because they can’t

They CAN’T simply because any disruption right now would be catastrophic and its why I have serious doubts QE is terminated as planned when China has just now initiated QE over there (here)

Liquidity clearly remains very low which allows for sell algos to move price lower much quicker than most have ever been used to since we haven’t had a grinding CORRECTION since OCT – DEC 2018 which was 57 trading sessions in length for SPX -20.21% total decline

We’re onto session #51 of this CORRECTION and whether this is wave A/1 of the start of the end of the world or its what 9/10 EW’ers have as wave-4 of the Cycle, a large bounce if approaching and we got all the easy meat off the downside back in JAN & FEB 

Thus I’d still suspect SPX 4065 – 4050 – 4045 this week / next week for the POST OPEX dip and will remind all:

This is the 3rd consecutive  MONTHLY Candle we’re working via a CLOSE EOM/EOQ below 4,363.14

This will be the 3rd consecutive OPEX FAIL as well via FAILING to reach +4,416.78

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We’ve simply done what we have done since JAN BOTTOM:

MOVED TOO HIGH TOO FAST & THAT IS A RISK FOR A LARGE MULTI-DAY DIP

7.06%  &  7.34% we’re our BIG POPS FEB/MAR

That would target SPY 442s:  +12p higher

Powell would need to pull a Scarface or Putin kneel down and kiss Zelenskyy’s feet to make that happen

VIX says CASH IN YOUR OVERNIGHT CALLS and sit back and let 2PM POWELL do what 2PM POWELL is going to do and then confirm it when he does his 2:30PM speech

Any other CALLS will be wanting to be looked after closely into that

VIX: In 30s since FEB 22

ANY tickers you want looked at, PM me in chat 

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  10yr @ 2.169 (5:00 AM EST)

 VIX @ 28.58 (5:00 AM EST)

• +30 Print points AGAIN to BTFD on SPY etc.

SPX Tuesday MAR 15 Data:

• Overnight Gap:   +15.71

• Range:   83.15

• Open -Close:   +73.63

• Close -Close:   +89.34

• LOD > Previous Close:   +14.79

• Previous Close > High:   +97.94

• ATH > Close:   –-11.54%

• ATH > LOD:   -13.09%

• 2022 Open:   4778.14 (-10.79%)

• HOD Off MAR 2020 LOW:   +94.86%

• YoY:   +7.56%

• Month of March (4,363.14):   -2.31%