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- TERMINOLOGY: ES = S&P Futures; YM = DOW Futures; NQ = Nasdaq Futures
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10yr @ 1.448 (3:00AM EST)
VIX HOD: 32.61 (31.12 Close)
VIX HOD: 32.61 (31.12 Close)
SPX Wednesday DEC 1 Data:
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Overnight Gap: +35.82
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Range: 142.67
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Open -Close: -89.78
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Close -Close: -53.96
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LOD > Previous Close: -56.73
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Previous Close > High: +85.94
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ATH > Close: -4.87%
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ATH > LOD: -4.92%
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YTD (Close) 2021: +19.88%
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HOD Off MAR 2020 LOW: +112.28%
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YoY: +24.61%
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Month of December: -1.95%
After BOUNCING right to the 50.0 retrace of the drop on SPX, the fade back held 1/2 decent with Janet & Jerome Day 2 despite some aggressive $TICK action and then the 1st Omibot headlines just ripped the hearts from the BULLS and produced THE LARGEST ONE DAY RANGE SESSION SINCE THE MAR 2021; THE LARGEST SINCE THE MAR 2020 LOWS
BULLS: don’t freak out because this is the last correction you will have to experience in this BULL MARKET
ONE more wave UP should come when this concludes and then you can go do something else for a couple years while the BEARS fulfil the gap fills back under SPX 2800
SPX retraced EXACTLY 50.0 of the OCTOBER RALLY WAVE @ 4511.39 and the 200.0 extension from the WAVE-A pivots
This “LOOKS” like a completed WAVE-A after failing that bullish descending triangle, quadruple bottom breakout to a bearish descending triangle into the DOW 200d & SPX 50d
ALL TIME FRAMES from the Daily to the 1Hr are all showing buy divergences which will CONFIRM when that quadruple bottom is broken above @ SPX 4590 / 4600
JOBLESS Claims today & JOBS Tomorrow which we’ve shared before with, dating back to BIDEN WIN, ALL ending UP with 2 of them irregualr flat.
Similar to the OPEX Pattern, you can go back 10years and see even BIG MISSES are still bullish
The OVERSOLD DOW, IWM and now QQQ all support the WAVE-A COMPLETED view on SPX after the break under that quad bottom @ 4590
The VIX just opened and is back under 28.84
The DOW has not been under its 200d MA since JUL 2020
With the SPX nearing the +100% CLOSE above the MAR 2020 LOWS @ 4474.80, this should be completed WAVE-A and the WAVE-B bounce as high as 4625 +/- 5
Any BOUNCE back above 4660 will start suggesting ALL of WAVE-4 IS COMPLETED
BIGGEST RANGE DAY
Going back to THE LAST BIGGEST RANGE DAY (MAR 4 & 5 2021) this was our wave 4 of 3 of III ending (3723) and wave 5 of 3 of III start
Prior to, was the start of wave-the 4 of 3 of II start FEB 25 where we had the drop – bounce, re-drop, face rip
Prior to that you need go back to MAR 2020
WEEKLY CANDLE COUNT
Got one last week, this is 2 consecutive on a close under 4628.75 and as can see – 3 consecutive is RARE to non-existent
You can go back 5, 10 years and even in the 2007 – 2008 collapse and not find many 3 consecutive weekly 🔻 candles to also support the WAVE COMPLETED is acceptable
WAVE II was -380p; -10.55%
We’re -234p and -4.92% (less than the SEP – OCT 2021 CORRECTION: -5.87%)
SPX -10% is @ 4269.45
Leaves +20 unfilled gaps for next summer
WAVE II was 3 weeks, 16 sessions
WAVE IVs tend to be faster and slightly less damaging
So UPSIDE should be limited to 4605 with DOWNSIDE looking to prove its completed before the WAVE-C for 4380 – 4280
