🍀 OPEX Week Thursday MAR 17 WATCH | Too High Too Fast

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• TERMINOLOGY:  ES = S&P Futures; YM = DOW Futures; NQ = Nasdaq Futures

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What You Need To Know

• CHINA  HSTech re-rallied off promises from Chinese regulators for a 2-day total +17.76% 

  All CHINA TECH NAMES provided MASSIVE moves since Tuesday night and are now overbought with sell divergences heading into the end of the week

• NASDAQ from the 23.6 retraces to the 2002 & 2008 BOTTOMS has made contact Tuesday morning

  /NQ (QQQ) has gained saw a +8.37% move   (+5.76% bounce on /ES so far) and it fits a dirty pattern we’ve formed:

  MAR 15 & 16 were both GREEN CLOSES  ABOVE the previous close

  FEB 24-25 we did this (off the FEB LOW FEB 24)

  FEB 15-16 we did this (producing the OPEX WEEK HIGH Wednesday FEB 16)

  FEB 8-9 we did this (when we DOUBLE TOPPED the FEB HIGH @ +4590)

  We have not posted 3 consecutive GREEN CLOSES  ABOVE the previous close since the 4 (JAN 28 – FEB 2)

  MAR 2, MAR 9, FEB 4 & the JAN 24 LOW were the only SINGLE SESSION GREEN CLOSES  ABOVE the previous close

  Every other session since JAN 18 has been a SELL DOWN 

• RUSSIA & UKRAINE are still engaged and POSITIVE COMMENTS of a way to talk PEACE is why we’re adding to the CHINA BTFD momentum ahead of Zelenskyy’s address to Congress prior to yesterday’s open

  When it was deemed the PUTIN RESPONSE immediately after was FAKE and ONE SIDED, we began our decline to fill the overnight gap on Powell’s Q&A to then CLOSE ABOVE the -10% line (SPX 4336.76) for the 1st time since MAR 3 (which we also ALMOST filled tha gap for to 4363.49)

• VIX

  VIX filled its FEB 25 GAP and made a perfect tagging to 21month long Resisitance Line to support on just under 26.80

  Also appears clean for a 1-2-3-4-5 Wave-A completion or alternatively 1-2-i-ii-iii of 3

  

  the critical 28.84 pivot will matter later today and DEFINITELY on Quad Witching OPEX Friday tomorrow

• S&P Nasdaq Russell & the Dow Jones all have RUNNING SELL DIVERGENCES on the Futures 1Hr and Index 1Hr with 4hr Futures RSI’s that reached FEB 9 PEAK OVERBOUGHT levels

  SPX closed 5.28p shy of the MAR OPEN which I’ve made sure to highlight for over a week of that signifcance and STRNG CLUE this CORRECTION IS OVER and the Final Wave 5 is due to begin (with a much less aggressive upside angle similar to 2000, 2018)

  

  We’re TOO HIGH TOO FAST HERE (but with the MAR OPEN & MAR HIGH not far off above) and when added in the QUAD WITCHING and standard OPEX Friday (see below):

  We’re DUE ONE LAST DIP TO LOW 4200s – HIGH 4100s

  Fits BEST for early next week to complete (don’t forget we “peaked” yesterday Wedneday and have been doing that for +1 month now (some Thursday) and selling off into the start of the next week

• U.S. 10yr (TLT, TNX) reached 2.246 on Powell yesterday and has since declined to 2.151 a/o 5AM EST Thursday

  TLT CALLS or TNX PUTS are the play for the retracement back to reality 1.75 – 1.80 into April Opex

• QUAD WITCHING OPEX FRIDAY

  You can get a review of 2021 Opex Friday’s here going back to AUG and the chart below for the ones since

  

  For the QUAD WITCHING Fridays

  Quadruple witching refers to a date on which derivatives of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously. Quadruple witching occurs once every quarter, on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.

  Going back to the MAR 20 2020 QUAD OPEX Friday,

  EVERY SINGLE QUAD WITCHING FRIDAY HAS ENDED 

  Thus a FAIL for MAR would be LOWER THAN 4,416.78 Today/Tomorrow

  The Post Opex Dip + the Too High Too Fast would look for BELOW YESTERDAY’S LOW – ABOVE THE FEB/MAR LOW into early next week

• POST OPEX Week DIPS tend to fall between -2% & -3% which from here works for 4270 – 4227

  NEVER FORGET THAT 23.6 retrace to COVID @ 4198.70 which has since threatened JAN 24 been the ultimate GET EVERYTHING LONG alarm pivot (just unfortunately been in this BULLISH FALLING WEDGE producing LOWER HIGHS for 3 months is the issue which CONCLUDES with the CORRECTION ENDING/ENDED)

• PUTIN is still PUTIN with NO FRIENDS & NOTHING TO WIN/LOSE

  

So we’re XTREMELY OVERBOUGHT having gone TOO HIGH TOO FAST and have running sell divergences on the 1-2 Hr time frames with 4hr time frames PEAKED to match the FEB 9 High

The Daily is above and is not off OVERBOUGHT by much

With QUAD WITCHING OPEX FRIDAY and the coming EOND OF THE QUARTER, we should see ONE MORE DIP and that will be the completed END of this CORRECTION and then the less aggressive upward WAVE 5 to complete the cycle off the MAR 2020 LOW into the SPX 5000s (reality is 4700 until proven otherwise & matches the 2000 & 2018 POVs)

Lot of INSANELY OVERBOUGHT names this week (especially Chinese & TECH) so please use me like I’m supposed to be used and

ANY tickers you want looked at, PM me in chat 

We’re onto session #52 of this CORRECTION and whether this is wave A/1 of the start of the end of the world or its what 9/10 EW’ers have as wave-4 of the Cycle, a large bounce if approaching and we got all the easy meat off the downside back in JAN & FEB 

Thus I’d still suspect SPX 4065 – 4050 – 4045 this week / next week for the POST OPEX dip and will remind all:

This is the 3rd consecutive  MONTHLY Candle we’re working via a CLOSE EOM/EOQ below 4,363.14

This will be the 3rd consecutive OPEX FAIL as well via FAILING to reach +4,416.78

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  10yr @ 2.130 (5:30 AM EST)

 VIX @ 26.96 (5:30 AM EST)

SPX Wednesday MAR 16 Data:

• Overnight Gap:   +25.69

• Range:   106.91

• Open -Close:   +69.72

• Close -Close:   +95.41

• LOD > Previous Close:   -10.46

• Previous Close > High:   +96.45

• ATH > Close:   –-9.56%

• ATH > LOD:   -11.76%

• 2022 Open:   4778.14 (-8.80%)

• HOD Off MAR 2020 LOW:   +98.87%

• YoY:   +9.66%

• Month of March (4,363.14):   -0.12%